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Home/Cannabis Science/Substance Use and Suicidality in Ultra-High-Risk Psychosis: What 12 Studies Show
substance use suicidality ultra high risk psychosis review featured
Cannabis Science

Substance Use and Suicidality in Ultra-High-Risk Psychosis: What 12 Studies Show

By Benjamin Caplan, MD
15 Min Read
Comments Off on Substance Use and Suicidality in Ultra-High-Risk Psychosis: What 12 Studies Show
CED Clinical Relevance #80 Clinical Evidence Update A PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered systematic review (CRD42024614852) of 12 studies (2,198 participants) examining substance use and suicidality in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis, published in Early Intervention in Psychiatry in August 2026. Its pre-registration, PRISMA methodology, independent dual data extraction, and use of the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool place it above the newsjack threshold despite a small, mostly null evidence base, because the clinical question, whether substance use should be weighted as a suicide-risk factor in early psychosis care, is directly patient-relevant and the review's honest reporting of weak, unreplicated findings is itself clinically useful.
Clinical Insight | CED Clinic
Clinicians in early-intervention and first-episode psychosis services are frequently asked to weigh substance use, including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine, when assessing suicide risk in people identified as being at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis, a young population that already carries meaningfully elevated rates of suicidal ideation, self-harm, and suicide attempts. A new PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered systematic review pooled 12 studies covering 2,198 participants to test whether that clinical instinct is actually backed by evidence, and found that only 13 of 40 analyses showed a significant association, most from a single unreplicated study.
Ultra-High-Risk PsychosisSuicidalitySubstance UseSystematic ReviewEarly Intervention
AudienceEarly intervention and first-episode psychosis clinicians, psychiatrists, mental health researchers, primary care and cannabis clinicians treating young patients with emerging psychosis risk factors, and family members supporting someone in a UHR psychosis pathway
Primary TopicA PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered systematic review examining whether substance use, including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine, is associated with suicidal ideation, self-harm, suicide attempts, or suicide deaths in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis, published in Early Intervention in Psychiatry in 2026
SourceRead the study in Early Intervention in Psychiatry

Table of Contents

  • Substance Use and Suicidality in Ultra-High-Risk Psychosis: What 12 Studies Show
    • How to Read a Review That Found Mostly Null Results
      • A Four-Step Reading Frame
    • The Same Study Can Mean Different Things Depending on the Question Being Asked
        • This Review Does Not Give a Clear Answer, and That Matters
        • A Caution Against Over-Weighting Substance Use in Risk Models
        • 13 Out of 40 Is a Weak Signal, Not a Pattern
        • No Basis Yet for Singling Out Cannabis
        • Cross-Sectional Data Cannot Answer This Question Well
        • Precision Prevents Both Alarm and False Reassurance
        • A Clear Case for Longitudinal, Substance-Specific Studies
        • Focus on Support, Not on Blaming Substance Use
    • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Newsletter Signup Form
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Substance Use and Suicidality in Ultra-High-Risk Psychosis: What 12 Studies Show

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A PRISMA-guided systematic review pooled 12 studies covering 2,198 people at ultra-high risk of psychosis to ask whether substance use raises the risk of suicidal thoughts, self-harm, or suicide attempts in this already vulnerable population. Only 13 of 40 analyses found a significant association, most from a single study, and the review’s authors concluded there is not yet enough high-quality evidence to draw a reliable connection.

What This Study Teaches Us
This review shows how thin the evidence base still is for a question that matters in early psychosis care: does using tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, or cocaine increase suicide risk in people already flagged as ultra-high risk for psychosis? Of 40 separate analyses across 12 studies, only 13 found a statistically significant association, and most of those came from a single study rather than being replicated. Tobacco showed the most consistent, if still preliminary, signal. Cannabis and alcohol were linked to suicidal ideation and self-harm in some analyses but not consistently. Composite substance-use measures, which lump different substances together, were largely unrelated to suicide outcomes at all.
Why This Matters
People identified as being at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis already carry meaningfully elevated rates of suicidal ideation, self-harm, and suicide attempts compared with the general population, and clinicians in early-intervention services are often asked to factor substance use into risk assessment and treatment planning. Knowing whether that instinct is backed by strong evidence, or whether it currently rests on thin, inconsistent findings, directly shapes how carefully clinicians can weigh substance use when assessing suicide risk in this group.
Study Snapshot
Study TypeSystematic review (narrative synthesis), PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered (CRD42024614852)
Population12 studies (13 papers), 2,198 participants at ultra-high risk of psychosis
Databases SearchedEmbase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science
Quality AssessmentMixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT), applied independently by two reviewers
Outcomes AssessedSuicidal ideation, self-harm, suicide attempts, and suicide deaths
Substances ExaminedTobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, and composite (multi-substance) use measures
Analyses Reported40 total analyses across the included studies
Significant Associations Found13 of 40 analyses, most derived from a single study
Most Consistent SignalTobacco use, associated with suicidal ideation and self-harm
Cannabis and AlcoholLinked to suicidal ideation and self-harm in some, not most, analyses
CocaineLinked to suicidal ideation only, particularly with continuous exposure measures
Composite Substance UseLargely unrelated to suicide outcomes
Key Limitations Noted by AuthorsHeavy reliance on cross-sectional data and dichotomous (yes/no) substance-use measures
JournalEarly Intervention in Psychiatry
PublishedAugust 2026
DOI10.1111/eip.70236
PMID42521509
Clinical Bottom Line
A PRISMA-guided systematic review of 12 studies and 2,198 people at ultra-high risk of psychosis found that only 13 of 40 analyses showed a significant link between substance use and suicidality, with tobacco showing the most consistent (still preliminary) signal and cannabis and alcohol linked in some but not most analyses. The authors concluded there is currently insufficient high-quality evidence to establish a reliable association.
What the Review Set Out to Answer

Substance use and suicidal thoughts, self-harm, and suicide attempts are both common among people identified as being at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis, a group of mostly young people showing early warning signs that precede a small but meaningful proportion of first psychotic episodes. Whether those two facts are actually connected in this specific population, however, has not been clearly established.

This PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered systematic review (CRD42024614852) searched Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for studies examining the relationship between substance use and suicidality in UHR populations, then had two reviewers independently extract data and assess study quality using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT).

A Small, Mixed Evidence Base

Twelve studies, reported across 13 papers and covering 2,198 participants, met the review’s inclusion criteria. Because the available studies varied too much in design and outcome measures to pool statistically, the authors used a narrative synthesis rather than a meta-analysis.

Across those 12 studies, researchers reported 40 separate analyses linking some measure of substance use to some measure of suicidality. Only 13 of those 40 analyses reached statistical significance, and the review notes that most of the significant findings were derived from a single study rather than replicated across multiple studies.

Tobacco Showed the Most Consistent Signal

Of the substances examined, tobacco use showed the most consistent preliminary associations with suicidal ideation and self-harm. The review frames this as a preliminary signal rather than an established causal relationship.

Alcohol and cannabis were each linked to suicidal ideation and self-harm in some analyses, but not the majority, meaning the association appeared in certain studies or certain outcome measures without being a consistent finding across the evidence base.

Cannabis and Cocaine Findings Were Narrower

Cannabis use appeared alongside alcohol as linked to ideation and self-harm in some analyses, without the review characterizing that link as strong or consistent.

Cocaine use was associated with suicidal ideation specifically, not with self-harm, suicide attempts, or suicide deaths, and that association appeared more clearly when researchers used continuous measures of cocaine exposure rather than simple yes/no measures.

Combining Substances Did Not Predict Suicide Outcomes

When studies used composite substance-use variables, combining use of multiple substances into a single measure rather than analyzing each substance separately, those composite measures were largely unrelated to suicide outcomes.

This pattern suggests that if any real relationship exists between substance use and suicidality in this population, it may be substance-specific rather than a general effect of using drugs or alcohol broadly, though the review’s authors caution that the current evidence is not strong enough to confirm this pattern reliably.

Why the Authors Call the Evidence Insufficient

The review’s authors identified major methodological limitations across the included studies, most notably a heavy reliance on cross-sectional data, which captures a single point in time and cannot establish which came first, the substance use or the suicidality, and the common use of dichotomous (yes/no) substance-use measures that cannot capture dose, frequency, or pattern of use.

Given these limitations and the low rate of replicated significant findings, 13 of 40 analyses, the authors concluded that current evidence is insufficient to establish a reliable association between substance use and suicidality in the UHR population, and called for rigorous longitudinal studies using validated, substance-specific measures.

How Strong Is This Evidence?
This review’s strengths are procedural rather than substantive: it is PROSPERO pre-registered, follows PRISMA reporting guidelines, used two independent reviewers for data extraction, and applied a validated quality-appraisal tool (MMAT) across included studies rather than treating all evidence as equally trustworthy. It searched four major databases, giving reasonable confidence that most published studies on this specific question were captured. Its most valuable contribution may be exactly what it found: a clear, honest picture of how thin and inconsistent the existing evidence actually is, rather than an inflated synthesis of scattered positive findings.
Where This Paper Deserves Skepticism
The core limitation is the evidence base itself, not the review’s methodology. Twelve studies and 2,198 participants is a small foundation for a question this clinically important, and only 13 of 40 analyses reached significance, most from a single study rather than being replicated. Heavy reliance on cross-sectional designs means the studies generally cannot establish whether substance use preceded suicidality, followed it, or reflects a shared underlying vulnerability such as impulsivity or a more severe clinical presentation. The common use of dichotomous substance-use measures also means most included studies could not detect dose-response relationships, which are often where the clearest signals in psychiatric epidemiology emerge. Because this is a narrative synthesis rather than a meta-analysis, there is no pooled effect size or confidence interval quantifying how strong any of these associations might be.
What This Paper Does Not Show
This review does not show that tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, or cocaine use causes suicidal ideation, self-harm, or suicide attempts in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis. It does not establish a dose, frequency, or pattern of use associated with elevated risk, since most included studies relied on simple yes/no substance-use measures. It does not identify a mechanism connecting substance use to suicidality in this population, and it does not show that reducing or stopping substance use lowers suicide risk, since no included studies were designed to test that question. It also does not provide pooled statistical estimates of risk, since the authors used a narrative synthesis rather than a meta-analysis.
How This Fits With the Broader Clinical Conversation

Suicide risk assessment in early psychosis and UHR services already accounts for many established risk factors, including prior self-harm, depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Whether substance use belongs on that list, and how heavily it should be weighted, has been an open clinical question given how commonly substance use and early psychotic symptoms co-occur in this age group.

This review adds a rigorous but sobering data point to that conversation: despite substance use and suicidality both being prevalent in UHR populations, the current published evidence connecting the two directly remains sparse, inconsistent, and largely unreplicated. That does not mean no relationship exists, only that it has not yet been demonstrated with the kind of evidence needed to guide clinical practice confidently.

Dr. Caplan’s Take

I read reviews like this one for what they quietly correct as much as for what they find. It would be easy to assume that substance use, including cannabis, meaningfully raises suicide risk in a population already known to be vulnerable, and to build clinical messaging around that assumption. This review is a reminder that assumption is not yet supported by strong evidence. Only 13 of 40 analyses reached significance, most from a single study, and the studies behind those findings were mostly cross-sectional, meaning they cannot tell us which came first.

For clinicians working with young people at ultra-high risk of psychosis, and for cannabis clinicians who may see this population as well, the honest clinical position right now is that we do not have reliable evidence connecting substance use, cannabis included, to suicidality in this specific group. That is not the same as saying there is no risk to monitor. Suicide risk in UHR populations is real and needs careful, individualized assessment regardless of substance use status. What this review tells us is that we should not lean on unproven claims about substance use as a suicide-risk marker until better, longitudinal, substance-specific research exists. Anyone working with a patient who is expressing suicidal thoughts should take that seriously and connect them with appropriate crisis and mental health support, independent of what this or any other single review does or does not show about substance use.

What a Careful Reader Should Take Away
A rigorous but small systematic review of 12 studies and 2,198 people at ultra-high risk of psychosis found only a handful of significant, mostly unreplicated links between substance use and suicidality, with tobacco showing the most consistent (still preliminary) signal. The evidence is not yet strong enough to treat substance use as a reliable suicide-risk marker in this population, and better longitudinal research is needed.
Evidence Interpretation Guide

How to Read a Review That Found Mostly Null Results

A review testing 40 different analyses and finding only 13 significant results can look, at first glance, like it found ‘some evidence’ worth acting on.

Four checks keep this review’s real, limited contribution in view.

A Four-Step Reading Frame

Count the replication, not just the significance
Most of the 13 significant findings came from a single study rather than being confirmed across multiple studies.

Separate the substances
Tobacco showed the most consistent signal; cannabis and alcohol appeared in some, not most, analyses; composite measures showed no clear pattern.

Check the study design behind each finding
Most included studies were cross-sectional, so they cannot establish whether substance use came before or after suicidality.

Hold the authors' own conclusion
The review’s authors state directly that current evidence is insufficient to establish a reliable association, and call for longitudinal, substance-specific research.

The Research Question
Is substance use, including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine, associated with suicidal ideation, self-harm, suicide attempts, or suicide deaths in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis?
The Patient Question
If I or someone I care about is at ultra-high risk of psychosis and also uses cannabis, alcohol, tobacco, or other substances, does that meaningfully raise suicide risk?
The Bottom Line
The current evidence is too sparse and inconsistent to answer that question reliably. Suicide risk in this population should be assessed carefully regardless of substance use, and anyone with suicidal thoughts should be connected to appropriate mental health support.
CED Perspective Lens

The Same Study Can Mean Different Things Depending on the Question Being Asked

Scientific papers rarely answer a single question. Patients, clinicians, researchers, policymakers, and critics often read the same data differently. The perspectives below explore how this study looks through several evidence-based lenses.

Lens Overview
Eight perspectives keep a review reporting mostly null results from being read either as proof that substance use is irrelevant to suicide risk in this population, or as confirmation of a link the evidence does not yet support.

This Review Does Not Give a Clear Answer, and That Matters

If you or a family member has been identified as being at ultra-high risk of psychosis and also uses cannabis, alcohol, tobacco, or another substance, this review does not provide strong evidence that the substance use itself is driving suicide risk.

It also does not clear substance use as irrelevant. The honest answer, based on current evidence, is that this specific question has not been well studied yet.

Lens takeaway
Suicide risk should be discussed openly with a care team regardless of substance use, and any suicidal thoughts should be treated as serious and worth immediate support.

A Caution Against Over-Weighting Substance Use in Risk Models

Early intervention and first-episode psychosis teams routinely incorporate substance use history into psychosocial formulations and risk assessments. This review suggests that treating it as a strong suicide-risk marker outpaces the current evidence.

Established risk factors such as prior self-harm, active depressive symptoms, and social isolation remain better supported than substance use status as predictors of suicidality in this population.

Lens takeaway
Keep assessing substance use as part of a full clinical picture, but do not treat it alone as a strong suicide-risk indicator yet.

13 Out of 40 Is a Weak Signal, Not a Pattern

Finding significance in 13 of 40 analyses is close to what could occur through multiple comparisons alone, especially when most of those significant findings come from a single study rather than being replicated elsewhere.

A narrative synthesis of inconsistent, largely cross-sectional findings cannot distinguish a real, substance-specific effect from chance, confounding, or shared underlying vulnerability.

Lens takeaway
Treat this as an open question awaiting better evidence, not as evidence of a real effect.

No Basis Yet for Singling Out Cannabis

Cannabis was linked to suicidal ideation and self-harm in some, not most, analyses, placing it alongside alcohol rather than showing a uniquely strong or consistent signal of its own.

For cannabis clinicians treating patients with psychosis risk factors, this review does not provide evidence to support singling out cannabis use as a distinct suicide-risk driver compared with the other substances examined.

Lens takeaway
Assess cannabis use as part of an individualized risk picture, not as a proven suicide-risk factor specific to cannabis.

Cross-Sectional Data Cannot Answer This Question Well

Most of the included studies relied on cross-sectional data, capturing substance use and suicidality at a single point in time. That design cannot establish temporal order or rule out shared underlying causes.

Dichotomous (yes/no) substance-use measures, used in most included studies, also cannot capture the dose-response relationships that often carry the clearest signal in psychiatric epidemiology.

Lens takeaway
The evidence base needs longitudinal, substance-specific studies before this question can be answered with confidence.

Precision Prevents Both Alarm and False Reassurance

Overstating this review’s findings, either as proof that substance use drives suicide risk in UHR populations, or as proof that it does not, would misrepresent a review whose central finding is that the evidence is not yet strong enough to say either way.

Accurate public communication about suicide-related research matters, and it should center accessible mental health support rather than framing substance use as either a scapegoat or a non-issue.

Lens takeaway
Report what the review actually found: mostly null results and a call for better research, not a verdict.

A Clear Case for Longitudinal, Substance-Specific Studies

The authors’ call for rigorous longitudinal studies using validated, substance-specific measures is a direct, actionable research priority given how sparse and inconsistent the current evidence is.

Given how prevalent both substance use and suicidality are in UHR populations, resolving this question with better-designed studies would meaningfully improve risk assessment and early intervention planning.

Lens takeaway
This review makes a strong case for funding the longitudinal research it says is still missing.

Focus on Support, Not on Blaming Substance Use

Families supporting a young person at ultra-high risk of psychosis may look for a single explanation, such as substance use, behind concerning changes in mood or safety. This review suggests that explanation is not currently well supported by evidence.

Suicide risk in this population is shaped by many overlapping factors. Families are generally better served by open communication and connecting their loved one with mental health professionals than by focusing on substance use as the primary driver of risk.

Lens takeaway
If you are worried about a loved one’s safety, reach out to a mental health professional or crisis resource rather than waiting for research to settle every question.

Join the Conversation

Have a question about how this applies to your situation? Ask Dr. Caplan

Want to discuss this topic with other patients and caregivers? Join the forum discussion

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Source: Alicia Tan Jia Hui, Lee D Mulligan. Substance Use and Suicidality in People at Ultra-High-Risk of Psychosis: A Systematic Review. Early Intervention in Psychiatry. 2026 Aug. DOI: 10.1111/eip.70236. PMID: 42521509.
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Frequently Asked Questions

What did this systematic review examine?

A PRISMA-guided, PROSPERO-registered systematic review (CRD42024614852) searched Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for studies examining the relationship between substance use and suicidality, including suicidal ideation, self-harm, suicide attempts, and suicide deaths, in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis.

How many studies and participants were included?

Twelve studies, reported across 13 papers and covering 2,198 participants, met the review's inclusion criteria.

Did the review find a clear link between substance use and suicidality?

No. Of 40 total analyses across the included studies, only 13 reached statistical significance, and most of those significant findings came from a single study rather than being replicated.

Which substance showed the most consistent association?

Tobacco use showed the most consistent preliminary associations with suicidal ideation and self-harm, though the review still characterizes this as preliminary rather than established.

What did the review find about cannabis specifically?

Cannabis was linked to suicidal ideation and self-harm in some, not most, analyses, a pattern similar to alcohol rather than a distinct or especially strong signal of its own.

What about cocaine?

Cocaine use was associated with suicidal ideation only, not self-harm, suicide attempts, or suicide deaths, and this association appeared more clearly when studies used continuous measures of cocaine exposure rather than simple yes/no measures.

Did combining substances into a single measure show stronger effects?

No. Composite substance-use variables, which combine multiple substances into one measure, were largely unrelated to suicide outcomes across the included studies.

Why did the authors say the evidence is insufficient?

The authors pointed to major methodological limitations, especially heavy reliance on cross-sectional data, which cannot establish whether substance use came before or after suicidality, and the common use of dichotomous (yes/no) substance-use measures that cannot capture dose or pattern of use.

Is this a meta-analysis?

No. The findings were narratively synthesized rather than statistically pooled, so there is no combined effect size or confidence interval quantifying the strength of any association.

What should someone take away from this review if they are worried about a loved one at ultra-high risk of psychosis?

This review does not provide reliable evidence that substance use drives suicide risk in this population, but it also does not rule out a connection. Suicide risk in ultra-high-risk populations should be assessed carefully and individually by a mental health professional regardless of substance use, and anyone expressing suicidal thoughts should be connected with appropriate support right away.

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